Why a useful market forecast should communicate a range of outcomes, its horizon, and the uncertainty around the estimate.
5 min read
Read note Vaniras / Insights
Notes on evidence, models, and judgment.
Practical writing from Vaniras on reading forecasts, evaluating machine learning outputs, and designing AI products that communicate uncertainty honestly.
Market Intelligence
How to Read a Market Forecast Range
A practical guide to base cases, upper and lower bounds, model confidence, and why those elements should be read together.
4 min read
Read note Responsible AI
Evidence Trails for Machine Learning Forecasts
What transparency can look like in a forecasting product, from model versioning and dates to ranges and evaluation records.
6 min read
Read note